Will stocks bounce back in 2023?
Stocks built up a head of steam in 2023, with the S&P 500 up 11% in the fourth quarter alone. This could translate to strength in the new year. Data from LPL Research going back to 1950 showed that years following a gain of 20% or more have seen the S&P 500 rise an average of 10%.
Stocks bounced back decisively in 2023, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 20% through July before retreating between August and October. In November, markets recovered, and stocks closed out the year with a sharp rally.
As for how the stocks will perform in the coming election year, 2024 forecasts for the S&P 500 vary widely, but the consensus seems to fall in the range of 8%-9% gains, a little under the index's historical average of about 10%.
The S&P 500® was up 4.42% in December, bringing its one-year return to 24.23%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® rose 4.84% for the month and was up 13.70% in 2023. The S&P MidCap 400® posted 8.50% for the month, bringing its one-year return to 14.45%.
Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
U.S. indexes: For 2023, the S&P jumped 24.23%, the Dow gained 13.8% and the Nasdaq rocketed 43.42%. Bitcoin: Shrugging off the high-profile criminal cases against FTX and Binance, bitcoin surged around 152%.
If you have individual stocks that appear to be underperforming (consistently), it may be time to cut your losses before those losses stack up even higher. However, if you believe the market will recover (which it usually does), you may decide to hold onto your stocks and ride out the waves.
For 2024, the consensus among most analysts is a modest single-digit gain for stocks. The median projection calls for the S&P 500 to rise by about 8%, while some of the biggest Wall Street companies, including JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), expect the S&P to fall in 2024.
Wall Street's outlook for 2024 is rosier.
Analysts see lower borrowing costs, a soft landing (that is, an economic slowdown that avoids a recession) and a pretty good year for investors. But if 2023 taught the market pros anything, it's that forecasts can look out of date pretty fast.
What will the market return in 2023?
The S&P 500 finished off a strong 2023 on a high note in December. The index gained more than 4% on the month and closed out the year up better than 26% based on total return and on the brink of new all-time highs.
For most investors, 2023 marked a much-needed comeback when it came to both stock and bond market performance after a brutal 2022. Bolstered by the combination of a solid economy, better-than-expected corporate earnings, and an apparent end to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, stocks rallied 25% in 2023.
The market could still fall again in the coming weeks or months. But over several years, it's extremely likely to rebound. By investing now, you're more likely to earn more over time -- regardless of what happens in the near term.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
This is the most bullish Dow Jones forecast for 2024. The Dow Jones is forecasted to trade in the 40,000-50,000 range during 2025 and continue the sideways movements in the next years. In five years from now, the agency forecasts Dow Jones to trade at around 50,000 points.
| Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023) | Average annual S&P 500 return |
|---|---|
| 5 years (2019-2023) | 15.36% |
| 10 years (2014-2023) | 11.02% |
| 15 years (2009-2023) | 12.63% |
| 20 years (2004-2023) | 9.00% |
Conventional wisdom holds that when you hit your 70s, you should adjust your investment portfolio so it leans heavily toward low-risk bonds and cash accounts and away from higher-risk stocks and mutual funds. That strategy still has merit, according to many financial advisors.
Is now a good time to invest in stocks? If you're looking to invest for your future -- five, 10, or 40 years from now -- now is as good a time as ever to buy stocks. Despite ongoing recession fears, it's important to remember the market is forward-looking. Stock values are based on future expected earnings.
- You've found something better. ...
- You made a mistake. ...
- The company's business outlook has changed. ...
- Tax reasons. ...
- Rebalancing your portfolio. ...
- Valuation no longer reflects business reality. ...
- You need the money. ...
- The stock has gone up.
| Stock | 2023 Performance* |
|---|---|
| 1. Jin Medical International Ltd. (ticker: ZJYL) | 3,020.1% |
| 2. Soleno Therapeutics Inc. (SLNO) | 1,932.8% |
| 3. Carvana Co. (CVNA) | 1,016.9% |
| 4. Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR) | 637.5% |
What was the best year in the stock market?
But stock prices soared in 1995--arguably, the best year in history. A number of major money managers made switches out of equities into government bonds in early 1996--fearing high stock prices and a market sell off. But 1996 was again a strong year for most of the market.
Moderna, Pfizer
Shares of vaccine makers Moderna and Pfizer have tumbled 46% and 45% in 2023, respectively—the worst years on record for both—after soaring during the coronavirus pandemic. Gains may be on the horizon, however, Barron's reported Wednesday.
Some traders follow something called the "10 a.m. rule." The stock market opens for trading at 9:30 a.m., and the time between 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m. often has significant trading volume. Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour.
But there's one group of investors who charge in to buy when stocks are selling off: the corporate insiders. How do they do it? They have 2 key advantages over you and me that provide them the edge during uncertain times. If you follow their lead, you can have that edge too.
An investor may also continue to hold if the stock pays a healthy dividend. Generally, though, if the stock breaks a technical marker or the company is not performing well, it is better to sell at a small loss than to let the position tie up your money and potentially fall even further.
